Scrapyard Bob wrote:corestwo wrote:I can't remember if you've explained your numbers elsewhere or not. Care to?
Mine approach it from the point of view that if certain ores get too pricey, the miners will flock to them driving up supply and driving down prices. Assuming that a solo hulk can pull in 90-95k m3 of ore per hour, and that once a solo hulk's income gets above 20-25M ISK/hr in hi-sec, the market reacts. Because it's not hard to dual or triple-box solo hulks and start pulling in 60-70M ISK/hr when hi-sec ore gets above 200 ISK/m3.
(Keeping in mind that hi-sec orca can boost yields by 40-65% per hour if a small fleet is setup. I used to run 3 hulks + orca and figured that I was topping out at around 350-360k m3/hr of raw ore.)
For null sec, a solo hulk that pulls in 50-60M ISK/hr starts to look very attractive (more so once you toss Rorqual boosts into the mix) - which is around 600 ISK/m3. So once again, I'm not sure that ores can get above 600 ISK/m3 and stay there for very long before the market balances back out.
I really don't expect hi-sec ores to stay above 150 ISK/m3 past mid-June / mid-July. Maybe they will if CCP keeps the botters at bay.
So, here is why I think you are wrong.
Lowsec is a player desert. There are very, very few people there, basically because the risk:reward is crap given hisec incursions, hisec missions, and all that other stuff. To make the risk worthwhile, the reward has to rise, and frankly, at your prices, it just isn't.
With your top-end case, lowsec ores are pretty much identical to highsec ores. Maybe a little better, but not enough to get people to venture out. They're in the 24-25m/hr range for Hedbergite and Hemorphite, 20-21m for Jaspet, assuming a hulk with average skills & T1 strip miners.
Now on the other hand, if we keep your prices the same but inflate Nocxium in a way that is out of proportion for your model, interesting things happen. At 1500/unit, say, suddenly hedbergite is worth about 35m/hr, hemorphite 38m/hr, and jaspet 33m/hr. Additionally, Dark Ochre gets up to about 35m/hr, so people in 0.0 might actually notice it, and crokite actually passes Arkonor and Bistot, exceeding 45m/hr, guaranteeing that it gets mined first.
At 1700/unit the nocx-bearing lowsec ores actually approach 0.0 ores.
So that's my bet. I'd put nocx at 1200/unit
on the low end, with 1700/unit as my top end call.
e: It was pointed out that I'd overlooked pyroxeres. It's a non-issue. My top end makes it quite attractive (24m/hr) to highsec miners, but the actual output per refine is low - 11 units - and the asteroids are always small and get cleared quickly. I do not consider it to be a significant contributor.